How might the United States' delayed payment of nearly $4 billion to the UN affect the organization’s fiscal governance and member‑state power dynamics in the coming decade?
Looking at the research materials, I need to analyze the US arrears situation and its implications for UN fiscal governance and power dynamics over the coming decade. Let me map out the key information:
Current US arrears scale: Multiple sources confirm the US owes approximately $4-4.5 billion total - roughly $2.19 billion to the regular budget and $2.4 billion for peacekeeping, plus tribunal contributions.
Article 19 implications: The Charter provision automatically suspends voting rights when arrears exceed two years of assessed contributions. The US could cross this threshold in 2026 and potentially lose its General Assembly vote in 2027.
Funding diversification efforts: UN agencies are increasingly relying on voluntary contributions and private sector funding, with about $33 billion in voluntary contributions across the system.
China's rising influence: China's assessed contributions have grown dramatically - from 0.8% in 1990 to over 20% currently, making it the second-largest contributor.
UN80 reforms: The Secretary-General has launched major reforms including 15-20